On the 24th of Dec 2010, South Africa was invited to join the BRIC group consisting of some of the worlds largest emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, China and India.
China is growing at approximately 9% a year and India has an economy that is about four times the size of
South Africa. South Africa is the world's 31st-largest economy, according to World Bank data for 2009.
One has to ask what has warranted this invitation?
SA has been extremely keen to get into this elite club for a long time, trying to explore better bilateral trade with China due to China being SA's biggest trading partner.
SA has shown poor economic growth over the years and forecasts sit at around 3% for 2011.
What has SA got to offer the BRIC nations? Is it the understanding that SA is the gateway to Africa? Because SA has the biggest economy on the African continent? It seems many international companies are trying to get into SA, one of the biggest is the 51% of Massmart bid by Walmart.
Along with this new status under the "BRIC" logo, not only do we see M&A deals but also large capital inflows into SA. International finance suggests one of the reason's why the ZAR is so strong is due to foreigners being the net purchasers of SA bonds and equity.
The JSE closed today at 31 837 , off its high but still relatively close to its all time high. With the Fed adopting its quantitative easing policy and many other developed economies trying to stimulate their economic growth it seems all the money is flowing into emerging markets. Along with the new "BRICS" status and all this optimism in emerging markets (as well as pessimism in the developed economies), one cannot deny the fact a new bubble is "emerging". Would value investors like Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham find any value in the JSE, I think not. The appropriate term would be "overvalued" from the people at Grahamsville.
In the end, is the inclusion of SA within BRIC warranted? Are all the foreingers wrong to invest in such a slow growing economy like SA? Does the developed world see intrinsic value within SA?
Or is it all just speculative optimism...?
The Young Economist
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Unemployment: Lack of Skilled Labour? I think Not!
I have just finished my Bachelors degree in Economics and have been looking for employment opportunities everywhere. Jobs in economics, finance and investment seem to be difficult to come by.
With many people I know having graduated as in the same field (as well as others with honours in finance), I beg the question where are all the jobs?
With matric results for the year ending 2010 out, here are some scary statstics:
The number of matriculants who passed rose from 60.6% in 2009 to 67.8% in 2010.
The pass rate in maths increased by 1.4% and in science by 11%
HOWEVER:
Nationally, 69% of the 263034 matrics who wrote maths scored less than 40%. More than 70% of the 20364 who wrote the physical science exam could not manage more than 40%. Only 23.5% of candidates gained a university exemption.
South Africa has one of the lowest university pass rates: 15% (Human Sciences Research Council)
"Lack of a skilled workforce is the biggest constraint to growth for South African business", according to Grant Thornton's 2010 International Business Report's findings.
If there is a shortage of supply of skilled labour, why is there such difficulty in finding employment?
Due to the lack of employment opportunities, South Africans have developed an entreupeneurial culture always looking to fill the gap in the market. People are able to obtain anything they wish from the stalls on the sides of roads, weekend markets flourishing and being handed pamphlets at every intersection is a sign of the times, people are trying to start their own small businesses as the job market is extremely small.
Evidence of this is the "Career Section" posted in the Sunday Times, with the size of the particular handout thinning in every issue.
Sure, as South Africans we are able to state our education system does need improvement however surely the 15% of graduates must be able to find jobs in the field in which they have studied!
I believe the focus should not only be on education, but also employment growth. There is a lack of employment opportunities in SA, which can only be attributed to economic growth.
Stats SA released figures maintaining "Real GDP at market prices for the third quarter of 2010 increased by an annualised rate of 2,6 per cent compared with an increase of 2,8 per centduring the second quarter of 2010".
If our economy is barely growing, how on earth are graduates suppossed to find jobs.
Matriculants see this fact and have no motivation, expressing the belief 'if graduates cant get jobs, why should I study'. This lack of motivation moves all the way down the education system to basic secondary education with people seeing no hope in the job market.
A similiar problem exists with qualified people, finding it easier to find career growth elsewhere in other various countries - contributing to the brain drain problem we face.
In conclusion; Politicians have a valid excuse promoting education however education must eventually lead to employment. Education is a means to an end, and if there is no end why educate yourselves.
Focus must not only be on education but rather things that promote education - job opportunities, career growth and ultimately economic growth.
The Young Economist
With many people I know having graduated as in the same field (as well as others with honours in finance), I beg the question where are all the jobs?
With matric results for the year ending 2010 out, here are some scary statstics:
The number of matriculants who passed rose from 60.6% in 2009 to 67.8% in 2010.
The pass rate in maths increased by 1.4% and in science by 11%
HOWEVER:
Nationally, 69% of the 263034 matrics who wrote maths scored less than 40%. More than 70% of the 20364 who wrote the physical science exam could not manage more than 40%. Only 23.5% of candidates gained a university exemption.
South Africa has one of the lowest university pass rates: 15% (Human Sciences Research Council)
"Lack of a skilled workforce is the biggest constraint to growth for South African business", according to Grant Thornton's 2010 International Business Report's findings.
If there is a shortage of supply of skilled labour, why is there such difficulty in finding employment?
Due to the lack of employment opportunities, South Africans have developed an entreupeneurial culture always looking to fill the gap in the market. People are able to obtain anything they wish from the stalls on the sides of roads, weekend markets flourishing and being handed pamphlets at every intersection is a sign of the times, people are trying to start their own small businesses as the job market is extremely small.
Evidence of this is the "Career Section" posted in the Sunday Times, with the size of the particular handout thinning in every issue.
Sure, as South Africans we are able to state our education system does need improvement however surely the 15% of graduates must be able to find jobs in the field in which they have studied!
I believe the focus should not only be on education, but also employment growth. There is a lack of employment opportunities in SA, which can only be attributed to economic growth.
Stats SA released figures maintaining "Real GDP at market prices for the third quarter of 2010 increased by an annualised rate of 2,6 per cent compared with an increase of 2,8 per centduring the second quarter of 2010".
If our economy is barely growing, how on earth are graduates suppossed to find jobs.
Matriculants see this fact and have no motivation, expressing the belief 'if graduates cant get jobs, why should I study'. This lack of motivation moves all the way down the education system to basic secondary education with people seeing no hope in the job market.
A similiar problem exists with qualified people, finding it easier to find career growth elsewhere in other various countries - contributing to the brain drain problem we face.
In conclusion; Politicians have a valid excuse promoting education however education must eventually lead to employment. Education is a means to an end, and if there is no end why educate yourselves.
Focus must not only be on education but rather things that promote education - job opportunities, career growth and ultimately economic growth.
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