Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Need to price an option? Easy.. While the Financial Accounting Standards Board lists a few methods, the typical gold standard at the moment is the Black Scholes formula, made famous by Fischer Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, awarded a nobel prize and is deemed a financial weapon of mass destruction. It has gained extreme publicity and yet is relatively simple to compute.. A call option is priced as:





Whats all the fuss about? The inputs are easy to understand and it takes a minute to programme. Some software packages have the function built in! In matlab: an example using the financial toolbox: 

Consider European stock options that expire in three months with a strike price of 95. Assume the underlying stocks spot price is currently 100 and pays no dividend with  volatility at 0.5 or 50% with the risk free rate at 10%, then 

[Call, Put] = blsprice(100, 95, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5) 
returns call and put prices of 13.70 and 6.35, respectively.
Options are here to stay. There are trillions of dollars, pounds and euros traded daily worldwide and are only increasing. Exciting times.
The Alpha Hunter

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Algorithms Everywhere!

From your everyday Google searches to high frequency trading, algorithms are everywhere in your everyday life. They play a crucial role in the functioning of our everyday lives working behind the scenes to simplify, automate and enrich our experiences. From the movies we watch, books we read, people we follow and pages we like.

We are being controlled by 'Bots' that attempt to think, act, behave.... and trade like we do. One big difference, its on an enormous scale and faster than we can ever imagine.
Trades are now being executed under 10 microseconds, bearing in mind it takes 350 microseconds to blink!

After reading "Dark Pools" it has come to my attention the future in quant finance is moving towards Artificial Intelligence or AI as its more commonly known, firms looking for the best programmers who have aptitude in exploiting speed of code, increasing speed of internet and understanding the wiring or 'plumbing' behind the connections to the exchanges. Just have a look at the jobs advertised at http://www.quantfinancejobs.com/ and you will understand exactly what I am talking about with openings requesting a PhD in a maths/applied maths/statistics/computer science/physics from a top school with a proficiency in programming in C++/C#/Sql/Java/R/Matlab ( I have a long way to go)!

With the toolbox consisting of  neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, machine learning and expert systems, applied mathematicians are able to take advantage of algorithms designed to scalp, pair trade, arbitrage and mean revert with machines thinking faster than you think you can think. 


Algorithms are buying and selling millions of dollars worth of financial instruments in split seconds on the large indexes and dark pools taking advantage of the 'basic at home trader' and 'investor' pushing prices up and front running when these algo's read a 'large whale order' coming in.
 Algo's called "Stealth" (developed by the Deutsche Bank), "Iceberg", "Dagger", "Guerrilla", "Sniper", "BASOR" (developed by Quod Financial) and "Sniffer" are giant sharks just waiting to exploit their strategies, gobbling us and each other up in a feeding frenzy when prices aren't 'mathematically sound'. 

While there is an argument that the electronic market is better than the old days of human traders, increasing liquidity and decreasing spreads, there are also the moments of weakness when computers get stuck in an infinite loop aka a selling frenzy (recall Knight Capital 2012 losing $400 million).



While it looks like a daunting time for financial markets. One cringes at the thought that markets are controlled by whoever has the best technology, there still is a big demand for the scientists who can use the technology to best effect. It still seems knowledge of stochastic calculus & processes, PDE's, measure theory, probability theory and their programming applications are important basics or building blocks for the quants these days the general trend is increasing specialization in computer science and AI using the basics along with speed to exploit price patterns.

The Alpha Hunter